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A Review of Hurricane Rainfall Prediction Guidance and Probability Distribution Function Formulations for Flood Mitigation Abstract

Abstract

As evidence by Hurricane Harvey and, recently, Hurricane Lane, hurricane rainfall can produce catastrophic impacts, compounded by predictability limits related to track, wind structure, and intensity. This seminar will overview intensity and track forecasting guidance, and how those are utilized for rainfall prediction. State-of-the-art inundation products, such as NOAA’s Water Model and the storm surge ADCIRC model, will also be discussed. Proper mitigation using return-level studies for rainfall events is also a necessary strategy for future storm preparation. This talk will review a simple empirical formulation recently published in the Natural Hazards Journal — the PDF Precipitation-Climatology and Persistence, or P-CLIPER.

Citation

Fitzpatrick, P. J. (2018). A Review of Hurricane Rainfall Prediction Guidance and Probability Distribution Function Formulations for Flood Mitigation. Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering. Houston, TX: University of Houston.